The term structure of interest rates has been a relatively reliable predictor of recessions in the past. The term structure in the United States has been negatively sloped since the middle of 2023.

The term structure curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term yields, has flattened. This indicates that investors are less confident that interest rates ...

The study of interest rate models and term structure analysis is central to understanding financial markets, underpinning the valuation of fixed income securities, derivatives, and risk management ...